This is my second article covering Interleague baseball as the first was in mid-May. Now, on Friday June 13th, Round Two of Interleague action will get underway. In fact, Interleague baseball will be going from June 13th all the way through June 29th. With 17 days of Interleague baseball coming up, it’s definitely a good idea to brush up on a few items specific to this style of baseball as we get ready to be immersed into it once again. As noted in my first installment about Interleague action on Friday, May 16th there are some interesting things to note about handicapping Interleague baseball action as it is indeed a different animal.

One of the key areas that I focus in on when analyzing Interleague baseball match-ups is the familiarity of a team with a pitcher. In today’s modern era of free agency and frequent player movement, you will often find certain match-ups that favor the hitters or the pitchers to a much stronger extent than you would normally see in traditional Intraleague match-ups within the American League and within the National League. The key here is that a pitchers success, or lack thereof, can often be tied back to a team’s familiarity with him. This is why we often see pitchers go through ‘sophomore slumps’ because they enjoy great success in their rookie campaigns when nobody has seen much of them and they then struggle in their second season when the hitters know what’s coming! This same ‘principle’ is what works for us in the case of Interleague play as well. That said, how did Round One of the Interleague action play out?

Surprisingly there were no strong trends at first glance. There were three days of Interleague action in mid-May and the home team won just a few more games than the road team did on each day. Additionally, there were a few more Unders than Overs and the AL won a few more games than the NL did. Still, this gave us nothing really solid to “hang our hats on” until digging a little deeper! The home team record in the first round of the Interleague action was 24-17. Although that sounds somewhat impressive it really isn’t when you consider that the home team is, of course, often the favorite and there is some chalk involved with those home team losses. However, the kicker comes in when you note that only four of the home teams did not win their series!

There were 14 series and the home team did indeed win ten of them! The “stinkers” were the Yankees who went 0-2 (one game was rained out) and the Giants who went 0-3. So, if someone playing the home teams stayed away from them they would have been picking home teams from a “database” producing winners at a 67% (24-12) rate! Why would someone stay away from those two teams? Because, as of June 5th, the Giants have more home losses than any other team in the NL and the Yankees have one of the worst home records in the AL among teams that have at least a .500 record overall.

The above helps in Round Two of the Interleague action because we know we can focus on all but the weakest of the home teams and most likely have a good shot at picking out of “pool” of mostly winners. Also, there is true logic as to why the home teams tend to perform well. The difference between the American League and National League is the use, or lack thereof, of the designated hitter. While this may not seem too significant it does impact other parts of the game (particularly bullpen usage and pinch hitters) and when these clubs are taken out of their “comfort zone” we can see how their results do seem to be impacted. As always, the pitching results, injury situations, etc. will all need to be a part of your handicapping arsenal but keep your eye on the home teams in the final 2+ weeks of June as that could once again be a key for Interleague profits.

Good luck – Nick “BookieKiller” Parsons

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